02:40 AM Sunday March 03

An upper low and low level offshore flow will maintain dry weather through tuesday with temperatures slightly below normal. Shower chances will return for the latter half of the week as an upper trough moves through.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Fraser outflow will continue this morning and then slowly ease later today and tonight. Spotty marginal wind advisory strength northeast winds have been occuring over the north interior and are expected to continue this morning before easing in the afternoon. A wind advisory remains in effect through this morning.

Otherwise, dry weather will continue through tuesday. An upper trough to the north today will turn into a cutoff upper low off the coast on monday. This upper low will move over the area on tuesday but it looks moisture starved and largely dry. A few model solutions show some moisture getting pulled up from the south on tuesday for a slight chance of showers over the cascades. Temperatures will remain a little below normal with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s to lower 30s. Schneider

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Models start to diverge on wednesday. The ecwmf and gem show an upper low offshore. southerly flow ahead of this upper low brings up some moisture and showers, especially for puget sound eastward. The gfs is more zonal with the upper low further northeast and somewhat drier. The forecast is a blend for now.

Model differences continue into thursday and beyond. The general idea is an upper trough will cross the area on thursday for a better chance of showers. Some drying is expected friday and saturday as the upper trough moves inland and is replaced with some sort of weak high pressure aloft. Snow levels will be low through the period and the lowlands flirt with snow at times as snow levels vacillate between 500 and 1500 feet. Schneider

HYDROLOGY

River flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wa...wind advisory until noon pst today for san juan county-western skagit county-western whatcom county.

Pz...small craft advisory until 4 pm pst monday for central u.s. waters strait of juan de fuca-coastal waters from cape flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from cape flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal waters from james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from james island to point grenville out 10 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape shoalwater 10 to 60 nm- coastal waters from point grenville to cape shoalwater out 10 nm-west entrance u.s. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

 small craft advisory until 10 am pst this morning for admiralty       inlet-east entrance u.s. Waters strait of juan de fuca-      puget sound and hood canal.

 small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 pm pst monday       for northern inland waters including the san juan islands.

 gale warning until 10 am pst this morning for northern inland       waters including the san juan islands.

MARINE

A strong, extensive area of canadian high pressure extends down the eastern side of the canadian rockies into montana and the great plains. Some this colder air has been able to filter through the fraser river valley into western washington, its presence being mainly know by the breezy northeasterly winds. This was the case today, prompting a gale warning across the northern inland waters and small craft winds elsewhere. Observed gradients early this morning still coming in weaker than model-projected gradients. This will make it hard to reach gale force winds across the northern inland waters but hesitate to knock it down to small craft given that we are amidst the event. As the morning progresses winds are expected to ease some across all waters, and have adjusted the small craft advisories-mainly to end it across the sound, admiralty inlet, and eastern strait by the afternoon. The strait and coastal waters should still see small craft as well as the northern inland waters after the gale expires. There looks to brief a brief lull in the winds this afternoon across these waters, but by the evening, should see small craft winds return to these areas. Winds should ease again through the day monday, eventually below small craft. Seas will remain below 10ft for the foreseeable future.

Kovacik

AVIATION

Northwesterly flow aloft will become more westerly overnight into monday morning. Northeasterly flow to continue at the surface due to high pressure over central british columbia. The air mass is dry and stable. Lingering vfr clouds will dissipate during the morning hours. Expect mainly clear conditions during the period. winds will generally be north-northeasterly from 5 to 15 knots. fraser outflow winds continue through the morning hours with gusts up to 30 knots for kbli before diminishing during the late afternoon.

Ksea...vfr conditions. Mainly clear skies expected with a few morning clouds. Winds north-northeasterly generally 5-15 knots. Jd