Dry conditions and clear skies are expected to continue through monday morning as high pressure aloft remains over western washington. Afternoon highs reaching the 40s to around 50 again monday. The next front will arrive monday afternoon bringing rain for the lowlands and snow in the mountains through tuesday with breezy winds. Drier weather will return by late wednesday into next weekend with temperatures near or slightly above average.
Current satellite imagery continues to show clear skies over w wa this afternoon with temperatures generally in the lower to mid 40s.
Models remain in lockstep keeping the ridge overhead tonight before exiting monday morning. The incoming front still progged to hit the coast in the afternoon and making its way inland monday evening. winds ahead of the front could run breezy to locally windy...but at the time being do not see this being a significant wind event that would require headlines. Once the front passes through monday night...the associated upper level trough will make its way through the area for much of the day tuesday before exiting during the overnight hours. Both models continue to hint at the possibility of a puget sound convergence zone during this tuesday overnight period before petering out wednesday morning.
High temperatures monday expected to be similar today before taking a bit of a dip by a couple of degrees tuesday. Snow levels with the incoming front will range from 1500 to 2500 feet...so no concerns for lowland snow. Qpf and estimated snowfall amounts derived from that however do look to meet borderline winter weather advisory criteria in the cascades monday night into tuesday with storm totals ranging 3-8 inches. With this still being in the third period of the forecast and this being a borderline event...will not issue any additional products at this time but will suggest that following shifts look closely and act accordingly. All in all... Not much in the way of changes in the short term. smr
Wednesday sees upper level ridging reclaim its throne over the area bringing a return to dry conditions into at least thursday. Models continue to diverge at this point however...with the gfs maintaining that the ridge will break down and allow for a weak shortwave to bring some precip into the cwa thursday night into friday. This would allow for an active pattern over the area with shortwaves riding over the top of the ridge...bringing more precip...into the weekend. The ecmwf however continues to amplify the ridge and keep conditions dry for the remainder of the forecast period. Once again...have split the difference between these solutions...but forecaster inclination is to lean a bit more toward the euro solution given how well it has handled the short term lately.
Afternoon highs will continue to climb in the long term...with temps getting back into the lower 50s wednesday and thursday...then continuing this warming trend into the end of the week. Current guidance is suggesting highs near 60 for next weekend...and that would most certainly be welcomed. smr
Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.
Wa...none. Pz...small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 5 am pdt monday for coastal waters from cape flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from cape flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal waters from james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from james island to point grenville out 10 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape shoalwater 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape shoalwater out 10 nm.
small craft advisory for rough bar until 10 am pdt monday for grays harbor bar.
gale warning from 5 am to 9 pm pdt monday for coastal waters from cape flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from cape flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal waters from james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm- coastal waters from james island to point grenville out 10 nm.
gale watch from monday afternoon through late monday night for admiralty inlet-east entrance u.s. Waters strait of juan de fuca-northern inland waters including the san juan islands.
A vigorous front will reach western washington monday afternoon and night. There is a gale warning in effect for the northern 2/3rds of the coastal waters, and a gale watch up for the normally windier areas for the inland waters. Winds should peak in the mid to late afternoon over the coastal waters and in the northern inland waters monday evening. Low pressure shifts inland tuesday while high pressure builds just offshore--giving northwesterly flow over the area. Pressure gradients will relax wednesday as high pressure shifts over the area. A weak front might reach the area late thursday.
Northerly flow aloft becoming westerly. The air is dry and stable for now, but clouds will increase monday as a frontal system nears the area. Rain will develop on the coast monday afternoon and spread through the rest of the area by evening as the front arrives.
Ksea...high clouds will increase tonight and a mid level deck will arrive monday morning. Rain with a front will arrive monday evening.