Showers are likely today, especially in a convergence zone in snohomish and king counties. Drier weather will begin wednesday, with gradual warming through sunday. High temperatures late in the weekend could be the warmest since mid or late october.
Cold front is through the cascades, leaving scattered showers in its wake. The air mass behind the front was a bit colder than expected in northern areas, where up to an inch of new snow fell overnight, and some spots are still having light snow. Updated the grids to lower the snow level to 500 feet or so this morning in the north, which may not be quite low enough but does generate mixed rain and snow wording in the forecasts, which is probably okay.
A convergence zone is apparent on radar, running from the northwest olympic peninsula to southern snohomish county. This is forecast to intensify and move south this morning, then dissipate this evening. it is likely to enhance snowfall in the central and south cascades, where a winter storm warning runs until noon today. Paradise on mt. rainier picked up a quick 12 inches of snow, but there has been considerably less in the passes.
The convergence zone should dissipate relatively quickly this afternoon as onshore flow behind the front weakens. Upper level ridging promptly begins building into the offshore waters this evening heralding the beginning of a pattern change for the region. a chance of showers lingers into the early hours of wednesday morning, but wednesday looks basically dry and partly sunny with temperatures just a little below average. A weak upper ridge axis pushes across the area wednesday night then eastward on thursday. there will be plenty of mid and high level moisture streaming across the region on thursday. With the mild west-southwest flow aloft and low level offshore flow, temperatures will get a bump to...get this...a little above normal. That`s not a typo. Highs in the mid 50s look like a good possibility for many spots on thursday. Chb/27
Previous discussion...as we get into the extended period, the models gradually attempt to establish a mean upper ridge position along the west coast. Unsurprisingly given the time of year, they have slightly differing solutions. The overall pattern will features a series of weak systems skirting the northwest corner of the state with occasional precip chances for the olympic peninsula and north interior. For the remainder of the region, it looks mainly dry with varying amounts of cloud cover. The ridge finally gains some amplitude toward the later half of the weekend. But the big news? temperatures. Call it the luck of the irish, but we could be talking mid 60s in many spots for high temperatures by st patrick`s day. Perhaps by then the days of early february will begin to finally fade from memory. 27
Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.
A frontal system will continue to push east into the cascades this morning with northwest flow aloft. Surface flow will gradually shift from southerly to westerly today. Current conditions range from vfr to ifr across the area with lower cigs/visby in heavier showers. Gradual improvement expected throughout the day as precipitation becomes more showery. The exception to this may be in a puget sound convergence zone which is currently trying to get going over snohomish county. Conditions may then dip back to mvfr tonight as plenty of moisture lingers.
Ksea...mainly mvfr ceilings today. Showers become more scattered today though could see the development of a convergence zone this afternoon. brief window of improvement possible this evening before mvfr conditions return overnight but confidence is low in current forecast. Southerly winds 5-12 kts will shift to the southwest with a few gusts to 20 kts possible today. Ceo
&&
Marine...strong west to northwest flow will continue through tonight in the wake of a cold front pushing east of the cascades. Small craft advisories remain in effect for all waters. Winds gradually diminish overnight into wednesday morning as high pressure builds into the area. Seas in the coastal waters and west entrance will be slow to subside so small crafts will ride into wednesday for those areas only. A weak front may brush by the coastal waters late thursday before lifting northward into canadian waters friday as high pressure continues to build over the area. Ceo
Wa...winter storm warning until noon pdt today for cascades of pierce and lewis counties-cascades of snohomish and king counties.
winter weather advisory until noon pdt today for cascades of whatcom and skagit counties.
Pz...small craft advisory until 9 pm pdt wednesday for coastal waters from cape flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from cape flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal waters from james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm- coastal waters from james island to point grenville out 10 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape shoalwater 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape shoalwater out 10 nm.
small craft advisory for rough bar until 9 pm pdt wednesday for grays harbor bar.
small craft advisory until 5 am pdt wednesday for admiralty inlet-central u.s. Waters strait of juan de fuca-east entrance u.s. Waters strait of juan de fuca-northern inland waters including the san juan islands.
small craft advisory until 5 pm pdt wednesday for west entrance u.s. Waters strait of juan de fuca.
small craft advisory from noon today to 9 pm pdt this evening for puget sound and hood canal.