03:46 AM Monday March 18

Upper level ridge over western washington combined with low level offshore flow will result in warm and record breaking high temperatures today and tuesday. A weak front moving up from the southwest will dissipate before it reaches the area wednesday. Another weakening front will bring some rain later friday and friday night. An upper trough will be over the area next weekend for some showers and near normal temperatures.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Satellite imagery shows upper level ridge over western washington with clear skies early this morning. With the clear skies a wide range of temperatures at 3 am/10z with mid 30s over the southwest interior and temperatures near 50 in locations exposed to the easterly winds.

Upper level ridge over the area today will slowly drift east tonight into tuesday. Offshore flow increasing into tuesday. Easterly winds are even picking up at some of the northwest avalanche mountain observation sites. Hurricane ridge, paradise on mount rainier and snoqualmie pass all reporting easterly winds around 15 knots at 2 am. Sandpoint profiler shows temperatures in the lower levels have warmed significantly in the last 24 hours. Last night at this time the temperatures in the 1000-2000 foot layer were around plus 10c. This morning they are around plus 15c. All this adds up to a warmer day across western washington today versus sunday with highs in the 60s to lower to mid 70s. Record breaking highs are forecast for the coast ( hoquiam record today 69, quillayute 68 ). Highs in the interior will be close to the records. Even warmer on tuesday with low level easterly winds increasing overnight into tuesday morning. Highs on tuesday in the 60s to mid 70s. Expecting record highs across the area ( seattle record high 63, olympia 66, bellingham 63, hoquiam 68, quillayute 66 ). Lows tonight and tuesday night will be in the mid 30s to upper 40s.

Upper level ridge well to the east on wednesday with low level offshore flow weakening. Negatively tilted front moving up from the southwest gets ripped apart wednesday afternoon well south of the area. Low level winds turn northerly in the afternoon. This combined with the weakening offshore flow will result in cooler high temperatures, especially along the coast, but highs will still be well normal and only a couple of degrees off the record highs with 60s common.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Extended models in good agreement with the low level flow turning onshore on thursday continuing the cooling trend. Next system arriving during the latter half of friday into saturday morning. This system will be splitting/weakening as it moves into the area but should stay intact enough to bring a little rain to western washington.

Upper level trough settling over the region saturday keeping at least a chance of showers in the forecast. Models are starting to trend drier on sunday but for now will keep a chance of showers in the forecast for sunday as well until this trend becomes more established. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s on thursday will cool back down into the 50s for friday and near normal over the weekend, in the lower to mid 50s. Lows thursday and friday night will be in the 40s with mid 30s to mid 40s over the weekend. felton

HYDROLOGY

River flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

MARINE

Offshore flow will continue, with breezy winds near gaps in the coastal terrain. The strongest east wind should be at the west entrance to the strait of juan de fuca. The offshore flow through the first part will ease after the middle of the week and fronts will arrive late this week.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wa...none. Pz...small craft advisory until 5 am pdt tuesday for coastal waters from cape flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape shoalwater 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape shoalwater out 10 nm- west entrance u.s. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

CLIMATE

In the over 125 years of records in seattle there have only been four occurrences of more than 1 day in a row of 70 degree days in march, march 27-29, 1994 ( 71,73,74 ); march 15-17, 1947 ( 72,72,71 ); march 11-12, 1941 ( 75, 70 ) and march 20-21, 1915 ( 74, 72 ). There have been a total of only 31 days on record in march with highs in the 70s in seattle. The warmest march day march 29, 2004 with a high of 78 degrees. Felton

AVIATION

A strong upper level ridge will remain over the pacific northwest through tuesday. Low level offshore flow will continue as a surface high pressure resides over southern british colombia and east of the cascades. Vfr conditions across most terminals, except near kbli, where some areas of patchy fog have developed during the overnight hours. The air mass remains dry and stable. Easterly flow aloft will become southeasterly late this morning.

Ksea...northerly winds up to 15 knots, becoming more easterly late this morning. Vfr conditions. 14