08:45 AM Monday March 18

A strong upper level ridge along with low level offshore flow will result in record breaking high temperatures today and tuesday. A weak front arriving from the southwest will dissipate before it reaches the area wednesday. Another weakening front will bring some rain later friday and friday night. An upper trough will bring some showers and near normal temperatures over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Satellite imagery shows quite clear skies over western washington as the upper level ridge axis is right over the area. The upper level ridge will slowly drift east tonight into tuesday. Offshore flow will increase into tuesday. Today will be warmer than yesterday with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Record breaking highs are forecast for the coast (hoquiam record today 69, quillayute 68). Highs in the interior will be close to the records. The forecast high at seattle, 69, is just shy of the record for today of 70. Tuesday will be even warmer with low level easterly winds increasing overnight into tuesday morning. Highs on tuesday will be in the 60s to mid 70s. Expecting record highs across the area (seattle record high 63, olympia 66, bellingham 63, hoquiam 68, quillayute 66). Lows tonight and tuesday night will be in the mid 30s to upper 40s.

The upper level ridge will be well to the east on wednesday with low level offshore flow weakening. A negatively tilted front moving from the southwest will dissipate wednesday afternoon well south of the area. Low level winds turn northerly in the afternoon. This combined with the weakening offshore flow will result in lower high temperatures, especially along the coast, but highs will still be well above normal and only a couple of degrees off the record highs, with 60s common. Felton/burke

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Previous discussion... extended models in good agreement with the low level flow turning onshore on thursday continuing the cooling trend. Next system arriving during the latter half of friday into saturday morning. this system will be splitting/weakening as it moves into the area but should stay intact enough to bring a little rain to western washington.

Upper level trough settling over the region saturday keeping at least a chance of showers in the forecast. Models are starting to trend drier on sunday but for now will keep a chance of showers in the forecast for sunday as well until this trend becomes more established. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s on thursday will cool back down into the 50s for friday and near normal over the weekend, in the lower to mid 50s. Lows thursday and friday night will be in the 40s with mid 30s to mid 40s over the weekend. Felton

HYDROLOGY

River flooding is unlikely over the next seven days.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wa...none. Pz...small craft advisory until 5 am pdt tuesday for coastal waters from cape flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape shoalwater 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape shoalwater out 10 nm- west entrance u.s. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

MARINE

Offshore flow will continue with surface high pressure east of the cascades. Breezy winds near the gaps in coastal terrain. strongest east wind is expected to be at the west entrance of the strait of juan de fuca. Offshore flow will continue into tomorrow before easing middle of the week with the return of fronts later this week.

AVIATION

Upper level ridge over western washington will keep the air mass stable and dry. Easterly flow aloft will become southeasterly early this afternoon. Low level offshore flow will continue as a surface high pressure area resides over southern british columbia and east of the cascades. Expect vfr conditions to continue. Winds generally north-northeasterly from 5-15 knots, a few gusts around the puget sound into this evening with offshore flow.

Ksea...vfr conditions continue. Northerly winds becoming more easterly this afternoon. Winds generally up to 15 knots with a few gusts possible later this afternoon. Jd