Light low level flow today will turn weakly offshore on sunday. Next weakening front arriving from the south on monday. Low level flow turning back to offshore as the next system moves inland south of the area in the middle of next week.
Satellite imagery shows cloudy skies over western washington early this morning. Some fog has formed over the southwest interior and near the hood canal with visibility at olympia and shelton below a mile at 3 am/10z. temperatures were in the 40s.
Southerly flow aloft today will continue to spread mid and high level moisture over the area. Upper level trough remaining offshore. Some isolated showers embedded in the flow aloft this morning. A little bit better chance for showers this afternoon with the air mass becoming slightly unstable, lifted indexes near 0, convective temperatures in the upper 50s. For most of the area just a cloudy to mostly cloudy day. Highs will be in the mid and upper 50s.
Shower activity quickly dries up this evening as the air mass stabilizes once the sun goes down. Flow aloft remaining southerly which will keep some mid and high level moisture over the area. lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Dry day coming up on sunday for the lowlands with a chance of showers remaining over the north cascades. Low level flow turning weakly offshore in response to the next splitting front well south of the area. The offshore flow will add a couple of degrees to the highs pushing many places into the lower 60s. Mid and upper 50s for the remainder of the area.
Models starting to slow down the timing of the next front with even the faster gfs not getting precipitation into the area until monday afternoon. With the front negatively tilted and weakening slower is the way to go. Have taken the pops out of all but the extreme southern portions of the area for monday morning with likely pops from about seattle south in the afternoon. Lows monday morning will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s with highs on monday in the 50s.
Extended models in pretty good agreement with some showers lingering around on tuesday. Upper level low off the coast moving south into oregon on wednesday pulling most of the shower activity south of the area. Will cut back on the pops and if the model trends continue look for the forecast for wednesday to dry out in the next few forecast packages. Nothing organized headed toward western washington thursday and friday but with a weak upper level trough over the area will have to keep a chance of showers in the forecast. Highs will be near to slightly above normal, in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Lows will mostly be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. felton
River flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.
Wa...none. Pz...small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 5 am pdt sunday for coastal waters from cape flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape shoalwater 10 to 60 nm-west entrance u.s. Waters strait of juan de fuca.
small craft advisory for rough bar until 5 am pdt sunday for grays harbor bar.
small craft advisory for hazardous seas until noon pdt sunday for coastal waters from cape flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal waters from james island to point grenville out 10 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape shoalwater out 10 nm.
Weak low level onshore flow today will become light tonight and offshore on sunday. Next weakening front associated with a 1008 mb low over the offshore waters moving through on monday. The low level flow will turn back to light offshore tuesday and wednesday.
Seas in the 10 to 13 foot range over the coastal waters as well as at the west entrance of the strait of juan de fuca will keep small craft advisories in place in these locations at least through tonight. Felton
A cold front brought scattered showers to the area overnight. Shower coverage is decreasing and will continue to diminish through the day today. Although most sites are currently vfr as of this writing, a few obs indicate the presence of mvfr ceilings. Do feel most taf sites will see a period for mvfr ceilings through the morning hours. These lower cigs should then lift back to vfr in the afternoon hours and become more scattered.
Moisture is expected to push north from oregon later tonight which will likely reinforce cloud cover. Forecast sounding data suggests the potential for lower-end mvfr ceilings towards sunday morning with most of the precip remaining to the east.
Overall prevailing wind speeds through this taf cycle should predominately be southerly with speeds under 10kts.
Ksea...vfr ceilings may give way to a period of mvfr ceilings this morning before conditions lift back to vfr and scatter this afternoon. Reinforcing moisture overnight tonight will likely allow for a drop back to lower-end mvfr ceilings, with these cigs hanging on for sunday morning. Winds predominately southerly under 10kts. dry conditions expected.
Kovacik