A weakening front will move through the area from the south this evening. Post frontal showers ending on tuesday. Low level flow will become offshore as the next system moves inland south of the area tuesday night and wednesday. An upper level low off the oregon coast thursday will dissipate friday. The next system will arrive late next weekend.
Satellite imagery shows just partly cloudy skies over most of the area with thicker high clouds just to the south at 3 am/10z. Temperatures were in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Clouds will be on the increase this morning as a front currently off the oregon coast moves northeast towards the area. Rain is still well to the south with the leading edge of the precipitation just reaching the northern california coast in the last hour. Parent low associated with the low slowly drifting west which will in turn make the approaching front more negatively tilted today slowing the front down before it reaches western washington. Model timing solutions still showing a little inconsistency with the faster gfs bringing rain as far north as about everett by 00z tuesday while the ecmwf is still dry for seattle at 00z. Will go more with the slower solution with front becoming more negatively tilted and take the pops out of the southern portion of the area this morning. Will stay with the current forecast of chance pops over the north and likely to categorical pops over the southern portion of the area this afternoon. Highs will be in the 50s with lower 60s possible in whatcom county.
Front moving through western washington this evening. Rainfall amounts in general will be between a tenth and a quarter of an inch. Current satellite imagery has a few post frontal showers with the main batch of showers remaining offshore around the upper level low circulation. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Upper level low drifting south on tuesday which will push a weak upper level ridge over the area bringing about an end to the shower activity for most of the area by late afternoon. Highs on tuesday will be in the 50s and lower 60s.
A break in the weather tuesday night with the low moving southeast to well off the southern oregon/northern california coast. System spinning out of the low remaining well south of the area. Low level flow turning offshore which will also help to dry the air mass. With the clearing skies lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s.
Upper level low turning east on wednesday. Models showing an organized band of showers rotating out of the low moving into oregon during the day with the northern edge of the shower band getting into southwest washington in the afternoon. Increasing mid and high level moisture ahead of the showers with only a partly sunny day from about snohomish county south with mostly sunny skies to the north. Highs on wednesday in the 50s and lower 60s.
Extended solutions have a hard time coming up with a consistent solution for the upper level low on thursday with the gfs moving the low to the northeast while the ecmwf has the low barely moving east. Both solutions have the low close enough to keep at least a chance of showers in the forecast. Shower activity will be more widespread if the gfs solution is correct.
Model inconsistencies continue on friday with the ecmwf weakening the low and moving it inland over southern oregon while the gfs has what is left of the low near astoria by friday afternoon. With the inconsistent solutions will have to stay with a broad brush chance of showers on friday. Both models have some upper level ridging on saturday for a dry day followed by a front sometime on sunday. High temperatures will remain near normal, mid 50s to lower 60s. Lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s through the period. Felton
No river flooding is expected over the next 7 days.
Wa...none. Pz...small craft advisory until 5 am pdt tuesday for coastal waters from cape flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from cape flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal waters from james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm- coastal waters from james island to point grenville out 10 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape shoalwater 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape shoalwater out 10 nm.
small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 5 pm pdt tuesday for admiralty inlet-east entrance u.s. Waters strait of juan de fuca-northern inland waters including the san juan islands-puget sound and hood canal.
small craft advisory until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for central u.s. Waters strait of juan de fuca-west entrance u.s. waters strait of juan de fuca.
Weak offshore flow will continue through the morning hours as an area of low pressure resides offshore the washington coast and high pressure remains located to the east. Wind speeds this morning over the interior waters are generally light, with small craft winds developing across the coastal waters and the western and central strait. As the offshore area of low pressure moves closer to western washington through the day, the flow will transition to onshore and the winds will become southerly. By late in the afternoon and early evening, small craft winds will become likely across the interior waters and eastern strait, while also continuing across the coastal waters. Winds are expected to gradually ease through the day on tuesday.
Kovacik
Large scale troughing over the pacific will usher in the next frontal system today. At the time of this afd writing, higher level clouds were spreading across the area from the south. This trend will continue through the morning hours, with cloud decks lowering to near 10,000ft and becoming more bkn-ovc. Have kept mention of fog in the taf for olm, but given incoming high clouds, confidence is not high in its occurrence or the degree of vsby reduction. Elsewhere, conditions remain quiet with winds light e/ne or calm.
As cloud cover continues to lower as the front approaches this afternoon and evening, rain will push across the area from sw to ne. have tried to time the onset for each taf site based on hi-res model trends. Rain should persist for several hours before becoming more showery behind the front monday night into tuesday. Ceilings should largely be vfr through the evening, with the potential for mvfr overnight monday into tuesday. Winds will also be breezy in the vicinity of the front, with a southerly wind sustained 10-15kts with gusts near 20kts possible.
Ksea...vfr conditions expected through the evening, with a chance for mvfr overnight. Cloud cover will thicken and lower today with rain showers spreading into the area this afternoon and evening. winds light out of the ne this morning with become southerly this afternoon sustained around 10-15kts with gusts near 20kts.
Kovacik